Biden, Trump, DeSantis and the scenarios for the 2024 presidential elections.

As a new round of presidential elections gets under way in the United States, much of the world looks with exasperation at the possibility of yet another major shift in America’s domestic and foreign policy. The mere thought of a Trump comeback in 2024 is nerve-racking for Washington’s allies, considering his vengeful eagerness to (once again) wreak havoc in America’s democracy and its role in the world.

No wonder most states are reluctant to support Washington’s policy towards Russia or China, for fear of another radical change of policy under the next administration as had happened after every administration in the past two or three decades. From the Bush administration’s imperialist and messianic overreach to Obama’s pragmatic realism, to Trump’s America-first nationalism and lastly, Biden’s return to strategic posturing, the dizzying change of doctrines has underlined the unreliability (read shiftiness) in American leadership.

A Trump comeback is sure to produce a vengeful reversal of everything Biden – a return to 2020 to Make America Great Again, again. A triumph for DeSantis is also a return to “MAGA” but without the whole drama. The fact that both are certified populist nationalists and neither is a liberal democrat will have major implications for America and its role as the world’s leading democracy – especially in Europe. Their opposition to liberal interventions and messianic wars will shrink US strategic commitments abroad, including in Ukraine.

As for Biden, a victory will ensure a triumphant continuity of his domestic social democratic agenda and a boost for his liberal crusade against Russia and China.